[Vwdiesel] lowering gasoline prices

James Hansen jhsg at sk.sympatico.ca
Thu Apr 18 03:06:48 EDT 2002

Harmon, buddy, you are so misinformed I truly feel sorry for you. We aren't
poisioning you. We aren't on welfare. Better change your bathroom book
supplier. The ideals you promote would more than double your tax load to
sustain if they could be accomplished at all.

Pardon the numbers, but numbers are reality...
 The USA currently uses 50 billion gallons per year of petroleum distillate.
this would take 29.4 billion bushels of soybeans, OR about 15 billion bushels
of Canola, which is ideally suited for biodiesel production at approx 40% oil
content versus the 18% found in soybeans.  I didn't verify these numbers, I'm
accepting the work of the National Biodiesel Board.
2001 december ending stocks for soy was 330 million bushels in the USA. This
would make only 60million pounds of veg oil, roughly 6 million gallons.

There were 96.8 million metric tons of supply of veg oil forecasted in the
world crop year ending 2000/2001.  This would be approx 21.296 billion gallons
of veg oil.  So how will this meet the US demand which is more than double
this?  Factor in lower yields with organic farming, and the logistics don't
even come close. Use canola for this scenario and you need only half the raw
product to make similar quantities of oil.  Still undo-able. The land mass
doesn't exist to produce this in any fashion, never mind organically.

The green dream is just that, a dream, mostly designed to relieve you of your
hard earned capital in the form of donation monies, to keep the noble
social(ist) activists farting through silk...  Better to have greener dreams,
that stay out of your pocket and keep the tax loading to a minimum.
   Unsustainable environmental goals serve no purpose.

  Biodiesel is expensive not because there are monopolies invloved, but because
there is only approx 1.5 million metric tonnes oil surplus in the USA at any
given time.  This is oil that has a destination use already, but isn't sold
yet. Supply and demand scenario:   take the oil off  the market to make
biodiesel, the prices rise, making it more expensive to produce you bio.  Take
out the subsidies you chirp about, and this grain and oil surplus will be gone
by decreased production. Go organic, and this wouldn't even be sustainable at
half this level in the long run. Bill Truesdell might be able to better comment
about this, but here, organic grain is only viable because some people think
the food supply is killing them, therefore are willing to pay a healthy premium
for it, most of which the farmer never sees anyway, much like Loren's apples.
Even at double the grain price, the yields drop off dramatically from weed
competition even with excellent field management, making it just barely
sustainable on any scale beyond hobby level.  Hayden has the right idea.  I'll
be joining the homebrew ranks as soon as I get this house finished.  Goal is
1000 gal per year for tractor fuel.  This will get blended at roughly 20% with
dino.  gotta build some tanks first, there is lots of oil, but there again, if
it becomes more popular, there will be no more pay you to take it away supply,
it will be sold like anything else to the biodiesel manufacturers. When there
is demand, it becomes valuable.

  Incidentally, if you know of any subsidies, let me know. This farm has been
in the family since 1888, I've been at it since 1989, and I have yet to see any
subsidy money.  The stuff governments talk about is mostly to support
government ag departments full of appointed political hacks that do nothing
useful anyway, the farmer sees nothing of the actual cash. It might be spent on
my behalf by the government, but a drunken sailor on leave could do better....
Reality sucks.

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